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Jacob Turk Pulls Within Single Digit Striking...
Jacob Turk Pulls Within Single Digit Striking Distance of Incumbent Emanuel Cleaver in Missouri’s 5th Congressional District
October 14, 2010
As the New York Times reports a doubling of competitive House races across the United States, candidate Jacob Turk (R MO CD 5) commissioned Rasmussen’s Pulse Opinion Research polling service to measure sentiment for 500 likely voters (methodology) in the 5th Congressional District of Missouri which includes Kansas City, Lee‘s Summit, Independence and Northern Cass County.
The major finding of the Pulse survey is conservatively Turk sits at 43 and has pulled to within single digits of the incumbent Democrat Cleaver who is at 52 with a 4 point margin of error and 95% confidence interval. Other survey questions point to an even closer race with Cleaver’s disapproval rating at 46% and the number of Turk individual contributors increasing to over 1,200 people with the most recent fundraiser over capacity.
The opportunity for Turk is 14% of likely voters who still have not developed an opinion of him with at least 6% of likely voters still undecided and similar candidates in other races polling at historic positive levels in the 5th District.
Furthermore economic issues dominate likely voters’ concerns with cultural issues only in the single digits, which generally poll strongly in a district heavily influenced by conservative Democrats and Republicans. See Appendix A.
In 2006 Cleaver pulled 64 to Turk’s 32. In 2008 during the Obama landslide with high Democrat turnout and a depressed Republican base vote, Cleaver surprisingly did not improve his numbers again pulling 64 but this time to Turk’s 36 with Turk improving his percentages across all types of precincts, urban and suburban . The Turk campaign was still focused on building name ID which has reached the upper 80's and a field organization now at over 4,100 active volunteers based on a multi-cycle strategy planned in 2006 .
The poll shows a 19 point swing from 2008 as Cleaver has lost significant support based on an historic outrage over President Obama’s and Cleaver’s failed economic policies that have exacerbated high unemployment, out of control spending and a record level of Federal debt and budget deficits.
This is supported by Rasmussen surveying the generic Congressional Ballot on October 11 with Republicans up 8 points over Democrats with the key finding being unaffiliated voters are sharply favoring Republicans, and the party out of power- which they have done for the last three cycles.
“Placing traditional media on top of a grassroots organization built over years, not months, in some of the toughest political cycles will make all of the difference in this race,” stated Jacob Turk (R-MO-5). “We leveraged social media, smaller events, door-to-door in almost every precinct and VOIP based phone banking to save money and reach the last of voters our field organization could not touch. These last two weeks will be the most critical of the last four years of hard work.”
“It’s clear all of Cleaver’s numbers are trending downward and there‘s nothing to stop it,“ stated James O’Brien, General Consultant, Jacob Turk for Congress. “I read about a 6 point difference based on all the statistical information we can gather and some variables in the questions asked. Outlier incumbent Democrats held their ground until very recently in polling, but that clearly is changing as no economic message has emerged from Democrats causing a matrix of problems not easily remedied in the time remaining until Election Day - de-motivating their base, motivating the Republican and conservative base, and igniting unaffiliated voters and the Tea Party movement to turnout and vote for Republicans and/or against current Democrat economic policy failures.”
“In terms of how you will vote in the next national election, are you primarily interested in National Security issues such as the War with Iraq and the War on Terror, Economic issues such as jobs and economic growth, Domestic Issues like Social Security and Health Care, Cultural issues such as same-sex marriage and abortion, or Fiscal issues such as taxes and government spending?
9% National Security Issues
47% Economic Issues
16% Domestic Issues
7% Cultural Issues
16% Fiscal Issues
6% Not sure”
The Pulse Opinion Research poll and this press release are Paid for By Jacob Turk for Congress, Jim McIntosh, Treasurer